Gosh, that sounds like a natural cycle of ice ages and warm periods, something this planet has done thousands of times. Could it be the sky isn't falling?

If you'd care to look at the charts, the earth has never seen any 'cycle' head towards an ending like our present 'cycle' if you want to call it that.

You need to look at some long term graphs. Say a few billion year long ones. Much wilder swings in the past. You can't tell me, if it has happened before man, that it won't happen no matter what man does in the future. That doesn't mean that man can't do a whopper on himself or change the timing.

Or did we have intelligent life spring up and use carbon every cycle? That would make for something interesting to put in the Drake equation.

If we are coming to the end of such a 'cycle', an important part of that 'cycle' is that we won't be around on what will be the next 'new earth'.

Yes, nature rules. Survival of the fit. And we may not be fit.

... Then again... If we could entice a few billion lost souls into a new breed of doomsday cults and lead them off somewhere inconspicuous to meet their wished for 'fate', now that could ease a lot of global warming problems!

Oooeerr... Unfortunately that does appear to be what we're doing, but for everyone regardless.

We have the doomsday cults. They just aren't going to drink koolaid, they are going force feed nukes.

Will nuclear winter cancel out global warming? <sarcasm>Perhaps we have the answer.</sarcasm>

Keep searchin',
Martin

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350

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N = R x fp x ne x fl x fi x fc x L

350

- ppm

Good find and a good one for the (Not) Stupid thread.

The race continues...

Who will win? Politics, physics, or noone?

Regards,
Martin

---

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Two recent physics articles:

Distant stars shed light on the solar cycle

Sustained drops in the energy output of the Sun could be more common than modern experience suggests, according to an international team of astronomers that has studied the activity of a number of Sun-like stars. The results could mean that past changes in global temperatures are more likely to be related to variations in solar activity than previously thought, and could allow us to predict similar changes in future.

Our Sun has a well documented cycle of magnetic activity with a period of about 11 years. This cycle can be observed as a rise and a fall in the number of sunspots and a variation of about 0.15% in the power output of the Sun. Direct observations of sunspot numbers stretch back about 400 years...

Note the numbers... A variation of 0.15% is very small compared to the total effects being seen here on Earth. As explained by:


APS rejects plea to alter stance on climate change

The American Physical Society (APS) has "overwhelmingly rejected" a proposal from a group of 160 physicists to alter its official position on climate change. ...

The official APS position on climate change says that "emissions of greenhouse gases from human activities are changing the atmosphere in ways that affect the Earth's climate" and adds that there is "incontrovertible" evidence that global warming is occurring. The APS also wants reductions in greenhouse-gas emissions to start immediately. "If no mitigating actions are taken," it says, "significant disruptions in the Earth's physical and ecological systems, social systems, security and human health are likely to occur."

[...]

Kleppner also points out that the call for change came from a small minority of the APS's 47,000 members. "This is certainly not a majority opinion," he says. "Most other physicists have come to a different conclusion looking at the same evidence."


Note that it is the nature of open science that there are always alternate views. What is remarkable about the above story is that for such a significant subject, there are so very very few scientists that hold an alternate view.

I think that's as near as you can ever possibly come to gain a majority view in the ultra-thoroughness of science!


Meanwhile, there is ever continuing hot air in the world of politics towards actually doing something.

Regards,
Martin

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Is it ethical for a politition to funnel public money into companies that he or she invests in? Aren't they taking advantage of the fact that they have a complete majority in congress? Perhaps they simply want to get rich?

/While the media vilifies those on Wall Street for getting rich at the expense of the rest of us, Gore and his buddies on Capitol Hill are getting kudos for doing worse. In a recent and appallingly obsequious article in The New York Times entitled "Gore's Dual Role: Advocate and Investor," the Times notes that Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. are also investing heavily in green ventures. Imagine the public outcry if these were Republicans.

Other public figures, like Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who have vocally supported government financing of energy-saving technologies, have investments in alternative energy ventures. Some scientists and policy advocates also promote energy policies that personally enrich them.

I don't see up and coming green energy companies a problem. Its the energy Giants that wish to keep the status quo. Them on top everyone else paying them. Heck I'd bet that given the opportunity they'd buy the green tech companies and shut them down. keeping the patents so that nothing could be made.

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In a rich man's house there is no place to spit but his face.
Diogenes Of Sinope

General Electric, a strong supporter of Obama and of so called green energy is an up and coming company? You learn something new every day!

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I believe they were talking about or congressmen/women putting their own money in startups and up and coming green companies. This had nothing to do with GE or their donations to a campaign.

And Honestly Corporate money is always being placed on the percieved winner of an election. Look back and you'll see that GE put money on but obama and mccain. THey just spent more on OBama. Heck they did the same thing during W's regime. They spent money on both parties. Regardless of the outcome they can always show they supported the winner. Its like the French and any war in the 3rd world. They sell arms to both sides and declare how they always supported the winner when the war is over.

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In a rich man's house there is no place to spit but his face.
Diogenes Of Sinope

The latest forecast with the present 'business as usual'...

Earth 'heading for 6C' of warming


... Now... What was the Age of Stupid film all about?...

Copenhagen anyone?

Regards,
Martin

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For Copenhagen, check out tcktcktck.org

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For Copenhagen, check out tcktcktck.org

Thanks for that one.

Copenhagen will be a turning point or a disastrous political quagmire until we start getting hit by the greater disasters from various climate tipping points...


It's our planet.

Regards,
Martin

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For Copenhagen, check out tcktcktck.org

My pleasure. As with any petition, the more the better. Its not a very difficult choice anyway. Science fiction will become reality with possibly the next generation (well, for me).

Regards
Pierre

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The Hadley Climate Research Unit, a very pro global warming government organization hid a good deal of their data from the public. As you might expect, an unknown hacker decided to try an get at the information and it appears the hacker may have been successful and if true, it is very bad for the pro warming people. You can read more about it here.

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The Hadley Climate Research Unit, a very pro global warming government organization hid a good deal of their data from the public. As you might expect, an unknown hacker decided to try an get at the information and it appears the hacker may have been successful and if true, it is very bad for the pro warming people. You can read more about it here.

And the hard real facts are?

That looks to be a good stirring for all manner of conspiracy fruitcakes.

However, what is actually being discussed?

At first glance, that looks just to be typical working email chat typical of any organisation working with 'important' results. Note that Science is independently peer reviewed.

Now... If you know that it is not independent...

Regards,
Martin

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First I have not claimed the data has been proved to be true. The source of the data is suspect and it will take a while to go through 61 megabytes of data to cross check it an make sure it's not a plant, however what has been found so far makes makes it likely that it is true and shows adjusted figures not based on science. There is a thousand times more money in the warming crowd than the non-warming crowd so independent peer review can break down because of greed. It has already happened in other fields and far less money was involved. The data that Hadley Climate Research has by UK law should be open to public inspection but it is not. What do they have to gain by violating the law and not making their data available to public inspection?

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First I have not claimed the data has been proved to be true. The source of the data is suspect and it will take a while to go through 61 megabytes of data to cross check it an make sure it's not a plant, however what has been found so far makes makes it likely that it is true and shows adjusted figures not based on science. There is a thousand times more money in the warming crowd than the non-warming crowd so independent peer review can break down because of greed. It has already happened in other fields and far less money was involved. The data that Hadley Climate Research has by UK law should be open to public inspection but it is not. What do they have to gain by violating the law and not making their data available to public inspection?

That all sounds much more like FUD rather than any reality.

The reality here is that we've just had some anomalous downpours of rain that have broken all weather records for this country. Main road bridges have been swept away and our entire helicopter search and rescue fleet were called out to rescue a few hundred people in just one affected area.

The thing with weather records and "record breakers" is that for a stable climate, you should get ever fewer record breakers recorded. That is, you will have already seen all the weather there is that happens.

Over the last twenty years, the record breakers have been getting ever more frequent and extreme...

At the moment, we've certainly got a weird weather pattern over the UK for this time of year.


Regards,
Martin

---

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An interesting view on people's view of Climate Change:

The psychology of climate-change scepticism

... A majority of the comments have been negative, as many readers will have noticed, and the same has been true for feedback in the form of letters and emails. On the face of it, this is pretty typical, even for a good magazine: angry readers write letters, while happy readers, by and large, do not.

But I have to wonder what else might be going on that is specific to the issue of climate change. ...


Climate change: how to win hearts and minds

Despite the fact that in 2007 the scientists compiling the IPCC report were 90% certain that human activities are causing climate change, climate scepticism amongst the public is on the rise.


Regards,
Martin

---

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First I have not claimed the data has been proved to be true. The source of the data is suspect and it will take a while to go through 61 megabytes of data to cross check it an make sure it's not a plant, however what has been found so far makes makes it likely that it is true and shows adjusted figures not based on science. There is a thousand times more money in the warming crowd than the non-warming crowd so independent peer review can break down because of greed. It has already happened in other fields and far less money was involved. The data that Hadley Climate Research has by UK law should be open to public inspection but it is not. What do they have to gain by violating the law and not making their data available to public inspection?

That all sounds much more like FUD rather than any reality.

The reality here is that we've just had some anomalous downpours of rain that have broken all weather records for this country. Main road bridges have been swept away and our entire helicopter search and rescue fleet were called out to rescue a few hundred people in just one affected area.

The thing with weather records and "record breakers" is that for a stable climate, you should get ever fewer record breakers recorded. That is, you will have already seen all the weather there is that happens.

Over the last twenty years, the record breakers have been getting ever more frequent and extreme...

At the moment, we've certainly got a weird weather pattern over the UK for this time of year.

From the way this is all ramping up, I can see this getting all rather nasty...


Climate sceptics claim leaked emails are evidence of collusion among scientists

Hundreds of private emails and documents allegedly exchanged between some of the world's leading climate scientists during the past 13 years have been stolen by hackers and leaked online, it emerged today.


Climate change sceptics and lobbyists put world at risk, says top adviser

"Those that have opposed a deal on climate, which would include elements of the fossil fuel industry, have clearly made making a 2C target much, much harder, if not impossible. They've clearly put the world at risk of far more adverse effects of climate change."


This climate email-hacking episode is generating more heat than light

Another skirmish has broken out in the long-running battle between climate scientists and so-called sceptics, and this one is likely to lead to more public confusion...

For the past few years, a small group of climate change 'sceptics' have been poring over scientific journal papers that report historical trends in temperatures from around the world, as recorded by directly by thermometers and other instruments, and by 'proxies', such as tree rings. Their primary objective has been to seek out evidence that global warming has been invented by climate researchers...


World's largest ice sheet melting faster than expected

East Antarctic sheet shedding 57bn tonnes of ice a year and contributing to sea level rises, according to Nasa aerial survey


Urgent checks on Cumbria's 1,800 bridges as more downpours forecast

An urgent investigation into the safety of all 1,800 bridges in Cumbria is under way today after the heaviest rainfall since records began swept several people away and claimed the life of a policeman.


Wettest month makes this Britain's new Wild West

Changing rainfall patterns are redrawing the weather map

... This week, Cumbria and Dumfries and Galloway have been worst affected. In 2006, it was Swansea; in 2005, Carlisle. We've just had the wettest November day since records began in England and Wales in 1766 – 243 years ago. The problem is, the record's being rewritten so quickly.

When a breathless television reporter says it's "a once-in-millennia event", that is meaningless. We're in new meteorological territory. The record could be broken right here, in south Wales, this weekend.


Ghost Trees bring deforestation to central London

Follow the progress of the project at www.ghostforest.org



One reader's comment sums up the present situation with the "supposed sceptics" nicely:

"I wish I was going to be around long enough to see the flat-earth, fags-are-good-for-you, MMCC-is-a-myth muppets drown in their own blinkered bullshit."


For myself, I wonder how many of the sceptics are Marketing droids, or others, in the pay of the various energy and construction industries...

Regards,
Martin


MMCC: Man Made Climate Change

---

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If you want one link to see what is going on in the climate skeptics camp, and you only want to look at one web site, I suggest Watts up with that . He was a weatherman before he retired and the only money he receives for is work is donations. His information comes from his own work, information from other web sites, from others who write papers in the field and from people who are unable to talk in the open for fear of losing their job. His coverage on the leaked data is the best I have seen anywhere. Also, he maintains an archive of older postings so you can look back on other reports. An example is last month, it was found that the tree ring data has also been played with. When you include the fact that tree ring data only shows stress to the tree which could include changes in rain fall, poor soil conditions or changes in sunlight due to fallen trees, it makes tree ring data a poor indicator of temperature but it's part of what the Hockey stick graph is based on.
The web site may be updated up to four times a day, so look beyond the first post to make sure you are not missing something.

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If you want one link to see what is going on in the climate skeptics camp, and you only want to look at one web site, I suggest Watts up with that . He was a weatherman before he retired and the only money he receives for is work is donations. His information comes from his own work, information from other web sites, from others who write papers in the field and from people who are unable to talk in the open for fear of losing their job. His coverage on the leaked data is the best I have seen anywhere.

Thanks for that.

From the postings there, no smoking gun so far. Just an eye-opener to what is needed when cross-referencing different datasets.

Hopefully, this will all be very good for making a lot of noise and involving more of the public in "peer review".

Unfortunately, this episode is also highly vulnerable to being hijacked by anyone who can 'shout loudest'. One 'soundbite' on TV-news may be all it will take for us to leap forwards by months or become quagmired in FUD (regardless of reality) for months...

Also, he maintains an archive of older postings so you can look back on other reports. An example is last month, it was found that the tree ring data has also been played with. When you include the fact that tree ring data only shows stress to the tree which could include changes in rain fall, poor soil conditions or changes in sunlight due to fallen trees, it makes tree ring data a poor indicator of temperature but it's part of what the Hockey stick graph is based on.

And is that really the full story?... So, for the sake of that one comment, ALL tree-ring data is TOTALLY discredited?...

Note that the tree-ring record has been accumulated from the results from many trees, and not just one. The real question is not of mud-fud-slinging and discrediting all science. A much better question is what certainty can be claimed and what are the bounds of error.

Note also that Scientists are completely restrained in what they claim. To make counter claims against something like 90% of respected scientific opinion you must have extraordinary evidence that noone else has.

The web site may be updated up to four times a day, so look beyond the first post to make sure you are not missing something.

Hopefully, this might distract a few more people away from their beer and TV soap operas...


Unfortunately, as recent events in the UK and elsewhere testify, we're quickly moving into the realm of "told you so" rather than "it just can't be so"...

And regardless, we and our activities are to must significant disturbance to the atmospheric and climate balance.

Regards,
Martin

---

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