If intelligent life exists elsewhere in our galaxy, advances in computer processing power and radio telescope technology will ensure we detect their transmissions within two decades. That is the bold prediction from a leading light at the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence Institute in Mountain View, California.

Seth Shostak, the SETI Institute's senior astronomer, based his prediction on accepted assumptions about the likelihood of alien civilisations existing, combined with projected increases in computing power.

Shostak, whose calculations will be published in a forthcoming edition of the space science journal Acta Astronautica, first estimated the number of alien civilisations in our galaxy that might currently be broadcasting radio signals.

For this he used a formula created in 1961 by astronomer Frank Drake which factors in aspects such the number of stars with planets, how many of those planets might be expected to have life, and so on. Shostak came up with an estimate of between 10,000 and one million radio transmitters in the galaxy.

You can read the full story here.

And as we are now able to detect planets around stars instead of just assuming they are there and our detection techniques are getting much better all the time, we will be able to plug live numbers into Drake's Equation before long instead of estimated numbers. When we are able to concentrate on stars with planets instead of just patches of the sky, odds should increase.

Thanks Thierry, interesting read.


Greetings from Germany NRW
Ulli [/url]

> If intelligent life exists elsewhere in our galaxy, advances in computer
> processing power and radio telescope technology will ensure we detect their
> transmissions within two decades. That is the bold prediction from a leading
> light at the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence Institute in Mountain
> View, California.
>
> Seth Shostak, the SETI Institute's senior astronomer, based his prediction on
> accepted assumptions about the likelihood of alien civilisations existing,
> combined with projected increases in computing power.
>
> Shostak, whose calculations will be published in a forthcoming edition of the
> space science journal Acta Astronautica, first estimated the number of alien
> civilisations in our galaxy that might currently be broadcasting radio
> signals.
>
> For this he used a formula created in 1961 by astronomer Frank Drake which
> factors in aspects such the number of stars with planets, how many of those
> planets might be expected to have life, and so on. Shostak came up with an
> estimate of between 10,000 and one million radio transmitters in the galaxy.
>
> You can read the full story <a> href="http://www.newscientist.com/news/news.jsp?id=ns99996189">here[/url].
>
>

Unfortunately, we will miss the signal because our servers are down.

thanks Thierry